ПРАКТИКА ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ПОКАЗНИКІВ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ ПІДПРИЄМСТВА ЩОДО ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ КОНКУРЕНТОСПРОМОЖНОСТІ

Abstract

Prospective forecast of enterprise competitiveness on the basis of extrapolation of enterprise performance indicators with necessary accuracy is investigated and analyzed. Analytical dependencies on the performance indicators of the enterprise and the relevant factors of influence for the enterprise of PJSC “NORTHERN MINING AND PROCESSING PLANT” were constructed. Particular attention is paid to the comparative analysis of the results of the forecast of factors of influence on the competitiveness of the mining enterprise. The main components of the impact on competitiveness are analyzed: expenses on wages (thousand UAH), working capital (thousand UAH), fixed assets (thousand UAH), net income (thousand UAH). A feature of extrapolation in the narrow sense is that it can rely on a rather small amount of data, which is often related to the properties of the processes under study. In the case of industrial enterprises, the data volumes are usually small, which is primarily explained by the presentation of information in the form of discrete time series with a time interval of one year. As a result, the use of extrapolation methods and conclusions of mathematical statistics is not justified and leads to significant errors. In such calculations, it is advisable to rely on point forecasts, since the methods of mathematical statistics are used in the calculation of interval forecasts. It is therefore considered appropriate to extrapolate in such cases by carefully examining the features of the data. Moreover, in analyzing the results of forecasting it is necessary to rely on the opinion of decision makers, that is, experts. The processes of transformation of Ukrainian society require comprehensive forecasting of the results of the enterprise in order to ensure adequate competitiveness. Competitiveness of the enterprise's potential involves exploring the factors of uncertainty and taking into account various risks allows to profit from new opportunities. Extrapolation allows to transfer the regularities of formation of the basic indicators on the activity of the enterprise beyond the current time interval and to provide the scientific basis for the managers to make the appropriate effective decisions. The results obtained lead to the following conclusions: harmonization of regression analysis methods and quantitative forecasting methods is the basis for ensuring the competitiveness of the enterprise.