거시경제변수가 보증사고에 미치는 영향 분석

Abstract

This paper analyzed the effect of macroeconomic variables on personal guarantee production. Cointegration existed and were used in the VEC model, followed by the consumer price index, the Government bond interest rate, the consumer sentiment index in the housing market, the Index of All industry production index, the housing supply performance and the number of Jeonse deposits refund accidents. According to the analysis, the number of long-term guarantee accidents with Jeonse deposits returned within 5% of the significant level is most affected by the consumer price index, and in the short term, the number of Jeonse deposit refund accidents is closely related to the change in the number of Jeonse deposits refund accidents. A rise in the consumer price index means a decrease in real income, which results in an increase in interest burden due to a decrease in real income. In addition, if real estate prices fall due to the government’s real estate stabilization policy, increase of supply, and economic recession, and the psychological burden on the economic burden of the tenants increases, the tenant will be unable to return the deposit to the tenant when the contract is completed. In response, the Housing Urban Guarantee Corporation needs to apply a model that takes into account the economic situation when selling guaranteed products.