Противоречивость этнополитических тенденций на Северном Кавказе: экспертные оценки

Abstract

1. The article is devoted to the dynamics of the ethnopolitical issues in the North Caucasus. Special attention is given to the changes occurred in the country and the world after 2014 and in relation to the big electoral cycle (2016-2018). The paper is based on the results of an expert survey conducted in 2016-2017 in all territories of the North Caucasian Federal District. The article presents the detailed analysis of the results of the study, obtained by the expert evaluation method (Delphi method). 2. The contrariety of the expert predictions of the dynamics of ethnopolitical tension at the end of the second decade of the 21st century is revealed. Despite the difficulties in the assessing the current state in the region, the experts managed to clarify and build the hierarchy of risks and threats. The experts name the following main risk factors: the preservation of ethno-clan structure in the republics of the North Caucasian Federal District; the decline of the socioeconomic status of the large part of the population in the North Caucasus; extremism brought from the abroad. The most experts notice the destructive influence degree of the latter two factors on the the ethnopolitical process is decreasing. Besides, the factors that increased the negative influence are revealed: the destructiveness of the socio-economic and political activity of the national elites; the inefficiency of the national policy pursued in the region. However, the experts note that the severity of some conflict-generating factors (for example, religious radicalization of some population, especially young people) has reduced. 3. Based on the results of the analysis, the authors come to the conclusion that the ethnopolitical situation in the region is characterized by a combination of both positive and negative trends with a certain increase of the stabilizing processes.The tendency of the change of the situationin the region to the moderately positive scenario may acquire the opposite direction at any time. Thus the monitoring of risk factors and analyzing the effectiveness of conflict management remains urgent.