Критерии допустимого социального риска при авариях на опасных производственных объектах

Abstract

Establishing the criteria for a tolerable (acceptable) risk of people exposure in case of industrial accidents and technogenic events is one of the widely discussed problems in Russia and abroad. As the main indicator in the criteria used for this purpose, an individual risk is applied, in some cases, including for the population, and, also social risk, reflecting the possibility of major accidents. According to paragraph 34 of Safety Guide «Methodological framework for conducting hazard analysis and risk assessment of accidents at hazardous production facilities», one of the indicators recommended for accident risk assessment is social risk. Social risk (or the risk of group of people exposure) is the dependence of the frequency of accident scenarios F in which suffered at a certain level at least N people from this number (N characterizes the social severity of the consequences (catastrophic) of the implementation of the totality of accident scenarios and is presented in the form corresponding to F/N curve). Social risk is applied when declaring industrial safety of hazardous production facilities in accordance with paragraph 42 of RD-03-14—2005, «Procedure for presentation of industrial safety declaration of hazardous production facilities, and the list of information to be included in it». Compliance with the criteria of tolerable social risk is one of the conditions when determining the blast resistance of buildings and structures at hazardous production facilities. Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign regulatory and methodological documents, two approaches in establishing the criteria for tolerable social risk are proposed. The first approach is based on the «Dutch» criteria. The second approach is based on «British» criteria and takes into account the specifics of a particular object, its division into components, requirements for tolerable individual risk. The proposed criteria will allow to avoid the problem when at the site facilities with a high density of equipment location and a large number of personnel the social risk practically will be always unacceptable. The proposed approach does not underestimate the risk of accident and takes into account the stronger effect on the risk of accidents with an increased death toll.