ЗОВНІШНЬОТОРГОВЕЛЬНІ ВІДНОСИНИ УКРАЇНИ З КИТАЄМ: ВИКЛИКИ ДЛЯ НАЦІОНАЛЬНИХ ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ ІНТЕРЕСІВ

Abstract

The article looks into key challenges for Ukrainian economy caused by foreign trade intensification with China in 2020 when Ukraine’s exports to PRC increased by 98 per cent. The dynamics and main structural shifts in the UA-CN trade are analyzed. The structure of bilateral trade flows between the parties by degree of processing and value added is explored. It is revealed that Ukraine’s exports to China consists predominantly from raw materials and products of primary processing: mineral products (iron ore), cereals (maize), sunflower oil and its residues, ferrous metals, etc. The imports from China to Ukraine consists mainly from electrical machinery, mechanical appliances, articles of apparel, chemical products, iron and steel, etc. Comparative analysis of the commodity structure of Ukraine’s exports to PRC and to the EU is conducted. The analysis shows that, despite dominance of traditional and low value added goods in Ukrainian overall exports, the share of sophisticated manufactured goods in exports to the EU is much larger than in exports to China. It is substantiated that trade with China largely determines the raw material orientation of Ukraine's international specialization, while exports to developed countries are characterized by a relatively higher share of intermediate and consumer goods. To increase the efficiency of Ukraine’s foreign trade, it is considered that the best option is to focus on reducing dependence on imports from China by developing domestic production of appropriate consumer goods and increasing export flows to developed countries. The expediency of Ukraine's refusal to participate in the New Silk Road project is argued in favor of using the benefits of nearshoring strategy, which opens the opportunity to replace Chinese consumer goods in the EU market with Ukrainian ones under the EU-UA association agreement. The article briefly surveys some cases of successful implementation of this strategy by Ukrainian business, in particular the launch of exports of household appliances (electro-thermic coffee and tea makers, electric razors, washing machines, electric heaters) to the EU.