РЕГУЛЮВАННЯ ВАЛЮТНОГО РИНКУ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ФІНАНСОВОЇ НЕСТАБІЛЬНОСТІ ВОЄННОГО ЧАСУ

Abstract

The article examines the peculiarities of the functioning of the currency market of Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The exchange rate dynamics in the pre-war period are shown and the factors of its formation in 2022-2023 are determined. It is noted that a significant inflow of capital into the country in the form of foreign aid from allied countries makes it possible to compensate for the foreign currency deficit. The NBU's measures to maintain exchange rate stability and their consequences for the monetary sphere in general and the foreign exchange market, in particular, are analyzed. Based on the study of risks and threats to the stability of the foreign exchange market, appropriate measures of the NBU to neutralize them in the conditions of martial law have been determined. The expediency of fixing the exchange rate at the current stage and the conditions for restoring the regime of flexible exchange rate formation are substantiated. It is established that during the period of martial law, financial markets remained stable due to the significant inflow of non-market capital into the country, the application of a fixed exchange rate and currency restrictions. Such positive consequences of maintaining a fixed exchange rate of the hryvnia as curbing the volatility of the foreign exchange market, reducing the cost of risk insurance, reducing the vulnerability of the economy to changes in capital flows, and stabilizing Ukraine's debt position have been identified.The directions for improving the regulation of the foreign exchange market in the short and long term are outlined. The NBU's strategic direction regarding the regulation of the foreign exchange sphere is the movement towards the gradual weakening of currency control and the removal of currency restrictions introduced at the beginning of the war, the transition to flexible exchange rate formation and the return to the monetary policy of inflation targeting. The restoration of production and the adjustment of transport logistics (opening of ports and/or setting up of alternative transportation routes), the revival of exports and the growth of foreign exchange earnings from other sources will ensure an increase in the supply of foreign currency on the market. After the cessation of hostilities, the NBU should conduct an exchange rate policy taking into account the tasks of post-war reconstruction, balancing between the stimulation of imports and the attraction of foreign investments