Abstract
For the stable operation of the Home Pension(Korean public reverse mortgage) system, policy establishment and risk management should be made based on demand estimates that reflects the main characteristics of reverse mortgage. In this study, changes in population structure and house price prospect were selected as the main factors that affect Home Pension subscriptions to estimate demand through the Bass diffusion model. The trend of cumulative number of surviving subscribers in Home Pension was investigated to reflect changes in population structure in the diffusion model. In addition, a comparative analysis was conducted to examine the impact of house price forecasts on new Home Pension subscriptions. The analysis shows that the number of new Home Pension subscribers will peak from the mid-2030s to 2040, after which the total number of new subscribers will remain stable with a long-term balance with the death toll.
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