평균온도와 자살 사망률의 연관성

Abstract

Temperature increase due to climate change is approaching as a practical problem. A recent study showing that temperature increase can trigger suicide is noteworthy in Korea, where the suicide rate is high. Distributed lag (DL) models have been used in many epidemiological studies to evaluate the cumulative effect of temperature on suicide. Although the effect of temperature on suicide differs by age and gender, DL models have been frequently used at the aggregated level. We used a age-specific DL models to confirm the effect of temperature by age. This model uses data from different ages to estimate age-specific DL effects. We used the model to explore the association between the standardized suicide mortality ratio and mean temperature by age in Seoul from 2010 to 2019. As a result, short-term exposure to high temperature was significantly associated with an increase in suicide mortality in those aged 65 years or older and those aged 35-64 years. On the other hand, 10-34 years of age showed a significant association with a decrease in suicide mortality. As the lag days increased, the effect of temperature decreased. The cumulative effect of mean temperature over the lag period of 0-3 days showed a significant association with suicide mortality only in those aged 65 years or older. The association between high temperature and suicide mortality was significantly higher in men than in women. This research method can be used in various ways in other studies to confirm the association between environmental factors and diseases by age.