Модель миграции периферийных идеологических концептов: возможности системно-динамического анализа

Abstract

The work is devoted to the urgent problem of the danger of the growth of extremist sentiments among young people caused by unpredictable changes in ideological attitudes (attitudes) in the group consciousness. Objectives: study of the dynamics of peripheral ideological concepts – one of the structural elements of ideology; identifying the trend of changes in the ideological attitudes of student youth on the example of the South of Russia; assessment of the predictive capabilities of the system dynamic analysis methodology for calculating the dynamics of ideological processes. An attempt was made to approbate the author's method of studying ideological attitudes, which could be conditionally called quantitative narrative analysis. The empirical base was made up of data from a survey of 2500 students in the South of Russia and the results of a five-year monitoring of the development of the ideological situation. The theoretical basis is the morphological approach to the study of ideologies by Michael Frieden and the concept of the cognitive-ideological matrix. In the development of this concept, the focus of the study was shifted from the morphology (structure) of ideologies to implicit processes occurring at the border of the cognitiveideological matrix and the social environment. As a result, a descriptive mental model of peripheral ideological concepts and a conceptual model of their migration based on the Bass diffusion model were built, performed in the AnyLogic simulation system. The result of the study was the identification of a left-liberal trend using narrative analysis, which had replaced the significant predominance of conservative and national-patriotic ideological attitudes in the group youth consciousness. It is concluded that the model of migration of peripheral ideological concepts, created using the method of system dynamics and mathematical statistics, significantly expands the possibilities of forecasting ideological processes, but has some limitations.