최근 기상특성과 재해발생이 고려된 호우특보 기준 개선

Abstract

This study is performed to consider the threshold values of heavy rain warning in Korea using 98 surface meteorological station data and 590 Automatic Weather System stations (AWSs), damage data of National Emergency Management Agency for the period of 2005 to 2009. It is in need to arrange new criteria for heavy rain considering concept of rainfall intensity and rainfall damage to reflect the changed characteristics of rainfall according to the climate change. Rainfall values from the most frequent rainfall damage are at 30 ㎜/1 hr, 60 ㎜/3 hr, 70 ㎜/6 hr, and 110 ㎜/12 hr, respectively. The cumulative probability of damage occurrences of one in two due to heavy rain shows up at 20 ㎜/1 hr, 50 ㎜/3 hr, 80 ㎜/6 hr, and 110 ㎜/12 hr, respectively. When the relationship between threshold values of heavy rain warning and the possibility of rainfall damage is investigated, rainfall values for high connectivity between heavy rain warning criteria and the possibility of rainfall damage appear at 30 ㎜/1 hr, 50 ㎜/3 hr, 80 ㎜/6 hr, and 100 m/12 hr, respectively. It is proper to adopt the daily maximum precipitation intensity of 6 and 12 hours, because 6 hours rainfall might be include the concept of rainfall intensity for very-short-term and short-term unexpectedly happened rainfall and 12 hours rainfall could maintain the connectivity of the previous heavy rain warning system and represent long-term continuously happened rainfall. The optimum combinations of criteria for heavy rain warning of 6 and 12 hours are 80 ㎜/6 hr or 100 ㎜/12 hr, and 70 ㎜/6 hr or 110 ㎜/12 hr.