우리나라 추운 겨울 기온의 체계 변위

Abstract

The Korean Peninsula has experienced regime shift (RS) in winter temperature since the mid-1980s. After the RS, monthly mean temperature significantly increased by 1.05°C in December with 95% confidence level, 1.36°C in January with 99% confidence level, and 1.60°C in February with 99% confidence level, respectively. Interestingly there is no RS in warm winter with 95% confidence level while there is a clear RS in cold winter with 99% confidence level, especially in December and January (DJ), indicating that the RS of winter temperature is mainly due to an abrupt temperature shift in December and January after the RS. Composite analysis suggests that abrupt shift in January after the RS is related to the reduction in sea level pressure (SLP) between Siberian high and Aleutian low, leading to anomalous southerly. However, abrupt shift in December is closely related to the propagation of Rossby wave spanning from the weakening of Ural high to negative anomaly over the North Pacific via high pressure anomaly over the Korean Peninsula, leading to adiabatic heating. Wave activity flux analysis suggests that the abrupt shift of DJ and the associated high pressure anomaly over the Korean Peninsula is induced by the propagation of Rossby wave spanning from North Atlantic Ocean to the Korean Peninsula via the Arctic, especially in cold winter.