「２００１年のエネルギー」特集 Ｉ 内外の長期エネルギー需給見通しとその読み方

Abstract

It is tremendously difficult to do and read forecast long-term energy supply/demand in cases both of the World and Japan. Therefore, the most important matters in long term projections are (1) basic concept and assumption behind projections and (2) implications of them.Based on several world energy outlooks up to the 2000, round the year of 2000, we will depend on oil at the rate of 40-50% to total primary energy supply. And at that time, more than half of total oil supply will come from OPEC.That trend is a common result ammong several projections, and, probably, it is unavoidable. In order to keep away from future's volatile energy circumstance, we should make efforts to progress energy resources development and international cooperation between energy producing countries and consuming ones, also among consuming countries by technological assistances and economic relations.As to Japanese long-term energy projections, two common trends will be made clear by several forecasts. Those are (1) low energy demand growth; energy/GNP elasticity will be 0.3-0.6, and (2) the rate of oil dependence will be 45-50%.Consequently, Japan's energy market wll be much competitive among energy supply industries; oil, gas, and power companies. And inter-industries matters will increase through new technologies such as co-generation. We should add two new view points to energy policies. One of the view points is from energy industries forecasted low growth and the other is from 'whole energy industry', not each energy industry such as power, gas or oil.Development of energy resources and new technologies relating energy consumption and producing should be durable without influence by short-term circumstance change.At this time, we are given a energy glat situation, however that will not continue, so we should keep it in mind that we hold a precarious future.