基于物质流和生态足迹的可持续发展指标体系构建——以安徽省铜陵市为例

Abstract

将物质流分析方法和生态足迹模型相结合,构建可持续发展指标体系,利用因子分析法对安徽省铜陵市2000-2010年间的可持续发展状况进行了评价。结果表明:(1)铜陵市直接物质输入(DMI)总体呈增长趋势,2010年相比2000年增长2.65倍,进口比重有所下降,区域资源开采活动有所增强,但直接物质输入仍主要依赖于进口,区内加工排放(DPO)总体呈上升趋势,区域内隐藏流(DHF)成为环境压力的主要来源;(2)铜陵市物质生产力数据显示其在物质利用效益方面有了改善,但与同期国内平均水平相比,仍存在一定差距;(3)铜陵市人均生态足迹持续上升,2010年达到7 hm²/人,生态足迹与生态承载力之间的矛盾逐渐加大;(4)可持续发展指标体系评价表明,铜陵市可持续发展状况呈现下降趋势。铜陵市应从调整三次产业关系、转变经济运行方式等角度出发,实现真正意义上的可持续发展。;The study combines the Material Flow Analysis method and the Ecological Footprint Model to establish an indicator system of sustainable development. On the base of the indicator system, the state of ecological sustainable development during 2000-2010 in Tongling City was appraised. The results show that: (1) The direct material input (DMI) keeps increasing averagely, with a value in 2010 2.65 times higher than in 2000. The proportion of imports goes downward, while the DMI still depends heavily on import activities. Domestic hidden flow takes a large percentage in DPO; (2) The resource productivity of Tongling City has lagged behind the average of the whole country, though a progress has been made in the past decade; (3) Ecological footprint shows an increasing trend, with 7 hm²per capita in 2010. The gap between the ecological footprint and the ecological carrying capacity has been widening; (4) The indicator system shows that the level of sustainable development of the city is gradually decreasing. To achieve a real sustainable development, it is necessary to adjust the proportions among the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and transform the mode of economic development by building circulation economy.