ВПЛИВ ДЕМОГРАФІЧНОГО ФАКТОРУ НА СОЦІАЛЬНО–ЕКОНОМІЧНУ СТАБІЛЬНІСТЬ КИТАЮ

Abstract

This research analyzes the demographic situation in China and its impact on socio-economic stability. Stable and balanced demographic reproduction is an important condition for the development of any economy, state and society. The implementation of effective social policy in China requires constant monitoring of the living standards of various social groups. Usually, in periods of deep and prolonged economic downturns, fiscal crisis, the state is forced to cut social spending, reduce the package of social services. Public services must justify budget expenditures in terms of costs and benefits. It is important that the monitoring and evaluation of budget expenditures is carried out efficiently and with minimal financial costs, so that the groups of the population who need it most can be identified. Scientific analysis of the Human Development Index and Population Reference Bureau data from 1950 to 2100 in China, Austria, Switzerland, the United States and the Netherlands shows a direct proportional economic dependence: the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) directly depends on the growth rate population and GDP growth per capita. Using the statistics recorded in the Seventh National Census of China, it is possible to trace the relationship between the level of socio-economic development of the country and its demographic situation. The author identifies 5 models of gender and age structure of the population: triangle, umbrella, helmet, spinning top, hat. Until 1979, China had an umbrella model with a high level of population growth. After the “one family – one child” policy, the situation has changed. The current demographic situation is reminiscent of the helmet model, the main characteristics of which show a decrease in the birth rate, a decrease in the working age population and an increase in the share of older people, which leads to excessive overload of the country's pension system. This pattern is described by the formula 4: 2: 1, which characterizes the situation when the Chinese government must, on the one hand, stimulate population growth, and on the other hand, be aimed at meeting the needs of older people and creating conditions for a new system of economic relations "longevity economy" or "silver economy".