ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ДИНАМІКИ СВІТОВИХ ЦІН НА ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВО МЕТОДАМИ ЕКОНОМЕТРИЧНОГО МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ТА ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ

Abstract

In today's global challenges, the food problem of providing the population with sufficient food is one of the most important problems of mankind. At the present stage, the food problem is caused primarily by excessive use of natural resources and increased food consumption, resulting in a constant rise in food prices, which threatens food security in low-income countries, as well as the poorest. in developed and developing countries. The article examines fluctuations in world food prices during 2000-2021 using economic and mathematical modelling. The analysis is based on the FAO Food Price Index, as an important indicator of the world food prices dynamics and tracks changes in the value of the world food basket. The article aims to develop an analytical approach to estimating the dynamics of world food prices based on the use of modern methods and information technologies of econometric data analysis and modelling. To model, the cyclical dynamics of food prices in the world, time series analysis utilizing software STATISTICA 12 on official monthly data of the food consumer price index have been used. Developed ARIMA (0,0,4)(2,0,0) gave the possibility to analyze the dynamics of the food consumer price index in the world during 2000-2020 and to explore three large cycles of fluctuations of the consumer price index during the studied period, which were connected, first of all, with the crisis phenomena in the world development. Significant reductions have been observed in the pre-crisis periods 2007, 2010, 2018, respectively, and the highest peaks were reached just in periods of crisis exacerbation (2008, 2012-2013, 2021). By using the ARIMA model, the behaviour of the consumer food price index in the world for the next 3 years is predicted. It was found that in the forecast period would be cyclical fluctuations in the food consumer price index with an amplitude smaller than in 2018-2020, which indicates a partial stabilization of prices for basic food products in the world. Forecasting of fluctuations in world food prices will help regulate food security in densely populated, low-income regions suffering from hunger, as well as the poorest sections of the population in developed and developing countries to prevent food shortages and exacerbate hunger in these regions.