ПРЕДСКАЗАНИЯ И ОЖИДАНИЯ КАК ОБЪЕКТЫ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ

Abstract

The current economic situation makes the processes of forecasting the world market conditions more difficult. As well as the planning of own production. Low reliability of the available statistical data, significant narrowing of the logistical possibilities for importing the necessary components and exporting the manufactured marketable products make the traditional methods of economic modeling and planning "from what has already been achieved" almost useless. It is necessary to expand the informational and methodological instruments for forecasting and planning production under conditions of uncertainty. The first obvious direction of such an extension is to use the technique of predictions and expectations. It turns out that both have a welldefined material basis and are amenable to scientific research. This article analyzes the possibilities of modeling the processes of birth, development, fulfillment and refutation of predictions and expectations, which can be included in the existing schemes for the development and adoption of planned decisions as compensatory mechanisms for the current uncertainty.