تحلیل ریسک بهینه در اولویتبندی سرمایهگذاری در شبکههای حملونقل آسیب پذیر

Abstract

Transportation networks are significantly vulnerable to natural disasters. The disasters cause disruption or reduction of capacity of important elements of the transportation networks such as bridges or tunnels particularly those for which alternative routes are not provided. The disruption or capacity reduction of the transportation networks results in decrease of an evaluation index of performance of the transportation networks. The evaluation index is highly dependent on stability levels of network components. Because of budget limitations, human resources, and time on one hand and having considerable exposed cost on the transportation networks due to disruption or capacity reduction of the network elements on the other hand, developing an investment prioritization scheme for the transportation networks is of importance. The stability of the network components are defined herein using appropriate probability distribution functions. Therefore, optimum resource allocation on the network elements is carried out by applying risk analysis techniques (using a simulation technique and dynamic programming) in order to enhance the performance of the whole transportation networks and reduce instabilities risk of the transportation networks. A hypothetical transportation network is applied to illustrate the capability of the proposed technique in investment prioritization and network performance enhancement.