Тенденції розвитку систем централізованого теплопостачання України

Abstract

We considered trends in the development of district heating systems (DHS) in Europe and Ukraine. It was established that DHS are widely used and make a significant contribution to the heat supply of European countries. In the European Union as a whole, the share of DHS is 13%, and there are plans to increase it to 50% in 2050 with a wide use of cogeneration and renewable sources of energy, including environmental energy with using heat pumps. Ukraine is one of the countries with a high level of DHS, but, at present, there are negative trends to reducing their contribution to the total heat supply for heating and hot water supply – from 65.2% in 2014 to 52% in 2017. In several cities, DHS ceased to function at all. The main equipment of the DHS of Ukraine is physically worn out and technologically obsolete and needs to be renewed by means of wide reconstruction, modernization, and technological re-equipment. We determined factors and the level of their influence on the demand in thermal energy of DHS. It was established that the factors reducing demand have a much greater potential. We created forecasts of demand for thermal energy, fuel balance, and the structure of DHS generation by 2050. It is shown that the demand for thermal energy from DHS will decrease and reach about 35 million Gcal in 2050. To ensure the low-carbon development of Ukraine in the structure of thermal energy generation in DHS, the use of coal-fired CHPs and boilers, as well as boilers on petroleum products will be significantly reduced. The share of natural gas in the fuel balance of DHS of Ukraine will also decrease, but it will be the main fuel for the period of technological transformation of generating capacities under conditions of the low-carbon development of Ukraine. The use of technologies for the production of thermal energy from biomass, waste, environment, and electricity will gradually increase, and in 2050, using these sources will produce about 23.8 million Gcal, which is more than 60% of the total thermal energy of DHS. Keywords: district heating systems, thermal energy, factors of influence, demand, fuel balance, generation structure