ОЦІНКА РІВНЯ БОРГОВОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ В УКРАЇНІ

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to assess the level of debt security of the state and justify the formation of its strategy. The main element of creating an effective debt strategy is the analysis of quantitative indicators of public debt and assessment of debt sustainability of the state. Without such a study, the formation of the state debt policy strategy and management decisions will be impossible, as it will not have a scientifically sound basis. The article presents the threshold values of debt security indicators, which allow to qualitatively assess the state of debt security of Ukraine. The thresholds of the indicators form a clear concept and understanding of the level of security and the current situation and the international debt policy market. Examining the debt burden, which is formed by these indicators, you can make a forecast and redistribute cash resources in the budgets of future periods. Ukraine's debt security assessment has been performed. Based on the assessment of debt sustainability indicators of Ukraine's external public debt, a tendency to increase not only the absolute and relative indicators of Ukraine's external public debt, but also indicators that inform about the risks of deterioration of the country's debt sustainability indicators. It is established that at the moment the debt situation in Ukraine is rather unstable. The leading role in this is played not only by the amount of debt, but also its relationship with the real and financial sectors of the economy. Declining exports, declining inventories, the crisis in the euro area, and low labor efficiency increase the risk of default. The necessity of formation of optimal debt structure is proved and long-term tasks of formation of debt policy for Ukraine are defined, in particular, planning the cost of repaying and servicing public debt, planning the debt portfolio, directing state guarantees to infrastructure, establishing control over the level of international reserves, establishing the expediency of financing social expenditures and reducing financial borrowing to cover deficits and interest rates and effective exchange rate policy.