Интеллектуальные технологии обработки информации для антикризисного управления в организационно-технических системах

Abstract

Background Antirecessionary management (ARM) is the special type of control management system, possessing the specific characteristics and one of the main AKM tasks is the crisis prevention. The organizational-technical systems (OTS) could be considered as the object of ARM, for example, critical situations on the enterprises, organizations, industrial facilities such as the accidents of technogenic type (emergency situations) could happen. The scientific problem is the development of intelligent information processing methods for management support at the different stages of crisis development for increasing of the ARM efficiency. Aims and Objectives Development and realization of the information support for antirecessionary management in OTS at different life cycle stages taking into account the features of information processing, such as the analysis of information processing peculiarities, development of models and methods of intelligent information support and its realization on the basis of the chosen technologies. Methods The principles of antirecessionary management, methods of the system analysis, decision-making, knowledge engineering are used accounting the object’s life cycle and information processing features. Results Antirecessionary information support methods for OTS at all life cycle stages are developed, such as «formalization and management, structure development», «stabilization». There were suggested the knowledge base models for identification of the industrial facilities hazards and Bayesian network for determination of the probabilities of upcoming accidents scenarios. Furthermore, the example of the ARM information support realization is considered.