Розробка математичної моделі впливу радіаційно небезпечних об’єктів на довкілля при пожежі.

Abstract

On the basis of the new data on the assessment of the removal from fires from stocks in the combustible material and the speed of weak grassroots fires spread, the wind rose in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and the capabilities of the HotSpot software package, there has been developed a mathematical model of real-time assessment of the consequences of accidents that may occur in the areas of radiation-hazardous objects during fires. The proposed model was verified on the basis of comparison with the data obtained during a large-scale fire in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in April 2020, and the maps of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone’s air and soil contamination with 137Cs and 90Sr were made. Using the proposed mathematical model, there has been carried out the analysis of the degree of danger that may create radiation-hazardous objects in case of fire directly on the territory of their location. In the paper, there are also considered the examples of the sanitation point (SP) «Rudnia-Veresnia», SP «Rozsokha» and the «Point of vehicle washing near the ChNPP cooling reservoir» in comparison with the current contamination of air and soil around these facilities with radionuclides. The results of the conducted analysis have been used to make a conclusion about the insignificant impact on the environment of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone compared to the current level of air pollution and the surface of its territory. Estimates of radiation exposure from SP «Rudnia-Veresnia», SP «Rozsokha» and the «Point of vehicle washing near the ChNPP cooling reservoir» to the environment have been obtained with the help of a simplified mathematical model. These data have a significant correlation with the actual data obtained in April 2020 (during a large-scale fire in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone) in the areas of location of the points of the automated system of radiation condition control, and places of work, temporary and permanent stay of the personnel and the population. Therefore, the created simplified mathematical model can also be used to assess the radiation impact on the environment in the implementation of emergencies of various kinds at other numerous radiation-hazardous facilities of the ChEZ.