Прогнозування втрат державного бюджету в післявоєнний період через фіскальні ризики, пов’язані з діяльністю суб’єктів господарювання державного сектору

Abstract

The article reviews the world practice of fiscal risks management, describes positive development fiscal risks management in pre-war period in Ukraine. The role public sector companies in the structure of fiscal risks and forecast trends are determined according to requirements of the post-war period. The activities of the largest state-owned companies Naftogaz of Ukraine, Ukrzaliznytsia, Ukrenergo, Energoatom were analyzed. The high risk of a negative impact associated with the activities of state-owned companies on the indicators of the state budget were determined. The existing mechanisms for modeling the expected results of the activities of companies in the economic public sector are described. They are only estimates and reflect only the possible trends of financial forecasts, and cannot be considered as a guarantees to the occurrence of relevant events. The facts are substantiated, that now need to correct approaches to fiscal risk management, the need to use modern scientific apparatus, in particular a multifactorial approach based on artificial neural networks for forecasting state budget losses due to fiscal risks.