Основні виклики та загрози Російській Федерації у військовій сфері: основа застосування її збройних сил на південно-західному стратегічному напрямку

Abstract

In recent years, the active policy of theRussian Federationto establish control over the post-Soviet space and confrontation with the Western countries has led to the confrontation betweenRussiaand the West (NATO,USA) at the level of the “Cold War”. The purpose of the article is to highlight the main challenges and threats of theRussian Federationin the military sphere in the process of analyzing the basis of the National Security Strategy of theRussian Federationand its Military Doctrine. Based on certain challenges and threats, the general purposes of the Russian armed forces are analyzed (including in the South-West strategic direction). The strategic goal of Russia's foreign policy is to restore its geopolitical status in the world, the self-assertion of Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, reintegration of the post-Soviet space and the creation of a union of the former Soviet republics by the way of building a model of interaction between European countries (excluding only the Baltic countries). The main priorities in the field of national security have set before the Armed Forces of theRussian Federationtasks that can be structured in two main directions: deterrence of military and military-political threats to the interests of theRussian Federation; advocacy of the economic and political interests. From the analysis, it follows that the situation around Ukraine constitutes the main threat to its national security. The armed aggression of Russia against Ukraine, despite the decrease in its intensity in the Donbas region, remains. The likelihood of a military invasion of Ukraine in the form of a full-scale offensive operation remains. Possible reasons for the invasion are more likely to be: - Any attempts from the Ukrainian side, to resolve the conflict on the occupied territory by force method (likely actions of the Russian Federation, in this case - probability conduct a peacekeeping operation to protect the rights and freedoms of the Russian-speaking population in this area is very likely); - Any buildup of NATO’s military capabilities and the deployment of an American missile defense system on the territory of Ukraine (probable actions of the Russian Federation, in this case - deployment troops under the guise of “Green Men” or they conduct a full-scale offensive operation with the purpose to occupy the territory of the left bank of the Dnieper and southern part of Ukraine).