부동산 산업의 경제적 파급효과와 충격반응 분석

Abstract

This study examines the effect of the real estate industry on other industries as input and output resources. We define the real estate industry based on the two- and three-digit industry classification system as the recent real estate industry expands into other interdisciplinary business sectors. We also aggregate the sub-sector of the real estate-related industry into the broad real estate-related industry. We analyze input-out tables to find the spillover effect and value chain to other related industries by utilizing a total of 17 annual industry input-output tables from the Bank of Korea. This study also extends the spillover effect of the real estate industry along with a fluctuation of macroeconomic conditions. We find that the magnitude of the economic effect of the real estate industry on other industries is large when we classify the real estate industry into the two-digit industry classification system except for the analysis of the additive value impact. We also examine the impulse response analysis (IRA) by utilizing vector autoregression analysis. IRA indicates that macroeconomic variables affect the real estate industry and drive the same directional spillover effect on other industries. Our analysis segregates the national input-output analysis into the regional input-output analysis to identify the economic effect of real estate market fluctuation of the Seoul Metropolitan Area on other regions.