ПРОМЫШЛЕННАЯ СТАТИСТИКА КНР

Abstract

Interest in the quantitative analysis of various processes and phenomena in the economy of modern China is steadily increasing. At the same time, the methodological subtleties of the collection, processing and content interpretation of the official socio-economic statistics of the PRC are not always fully taken into account. One cannot, however, agree with the view of the a priori unreliability or “corruption” of the Chinese statistical system as such, which allegedly makes any reference to official statistics inappropriate. The phenomenal speed of social transformations cannot but affect the quality of system management, including in terms of statistical support. At the same time, there is a successful experience of adequate use of official statistics of the PRC with obtaining analytically valuable results. The economic interpretation of China’s official statistics faces three main challenges. First, some data may be intentionally skewed. Secondly, some data are of dubious economic value, as they are built. The third problem is the frequent redefinition of economic variables and categories of enterprises. Such adjustments are often not accompanied by a revision of the variable or category name, and such statistical fractures have occurred repeatedly in the recent history of the PRC. The resulting inconsistencies in time series data are perhaps most pronounced in industrial sector statistics. The study attempts to analyze the most important problems of the reliability of China’s industrial statistics as their historical origin, consolidation and critical discussion. The methodological specificity of the three periods — Maoist, post-reform and modern in terms of collection, processing and economic interpretation of Chinese industrial statistics is revealed. The most important methodological innovations of the official industrial statistics of the PRC in the framework of the post-reform and modern periods are systematized. The adequacy of the modern official industrial statistics of China in terms of the ability to reflect the real macroeconomic processes and the effects of state industrial policy is analyzed.