Розвиток парадигми РОП на основі теоретичних досліджень у сфері безпеки

Abstract

The paper considers the introduction and development of the risk-based approach (RBA) para-digm. It describes the capabilities of RBA methods to categorize threats by their level of dan-ger, which allows the use of information technologies and the implementation of more efficient optimization measures. A gradual transition to the RBA paradigm from the point of view of IT development and as a way to the independent (impartial) audit of the main safety parameters has been traced. The possibilities and limitations of the existing methods are analyzed, and the trend toward the transition to adaptive security management is shown in the paper. The possibil-ities of reducing the costs of building models for determining the numerical values of risk due to the development of probabilistic structural and logical models by types of dangerous objects and productions are demonstrated. The significant potential of domestic developments concern-ing the development and implementation of a probabilistic-physical approach to the assessment of durability and reliability using probabilistic models based on DM- and DN-distribution func-tions in conditions of insufficient information on failures is described in the article. The work demonstrates the effectiveness of the transition to the modern methods of safety analysis based on the RBA paradigm in Ukraine's nuclear energy sector since the early 2000s. In this sector, thanks to the updating of development processes, safety planning measures, and government control, the damages resulting from emergency shutdowns have decreased by more than 10 times. At the same time, it has been noted that our country is lagging behind in implementing the RBA paradigm in other areas of production and life. To accelerate the implementation of RBA in a wide range of industries and spheres of life, the priority problems and tasks related to the development of IT, which require solutions in our country and all over the world, have been formulated.