ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ ТА ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ РОЗВИТКУ ЕЛЕКТРОННОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ В УКРАЇНІ

Abstract

The dynamics of e-commerce development indicators of Ukraine in hryvnia and dollar equivalent is analyzed. It is studied that the e-commerce market is represented by a large number of participants, among which the most popular are the sites of foreign companies: AliExpress, eBay, Amazon. However, with the creation of an increasingly active e-commerce space in Ukraine, the popularity of foreign platforms is declining, and domestic entities are increasingly using the experience of business models of other countries, implementing it in their own activities. Most of the e-commerce market in Ukraine is occupied by companies that use four business models: e-shop, e-bulletin board, e-marketplace and price aggregator; moreover, a significant number of companies use hybrid models such as «bulletin board + price aggregator», «supermarket + marketplace». Trends in the development of national e-commerce have been identified, in particular: growing consumer demand for personalized communications and reliability testing of e-commerce; expanding the use of contactless payment technologies, trade acquiring, augmented and visual reality; promotion of loyalty programs with embedded CRM-systems; integration of on-line and off-line sales channels in order to ensure maximum quality of customer service (omnichannel); attracting customers to the store through the use of mobile search technology; modeling of effective models of sales of goods on the basis of the laws and reasons of behavior of consumers revealed by means of artificial intelligence. The development of e-commerce is predicted in two scenarios – pessimistic and optimistic. To determine the projected volume of e-commerce in the pessimistic scenario, linear trends are built; and for the optimistic scenario the polynomial model of development of approximate dependence is used. It is expected that by the end of 2025 the volume of e-commerce will amount to 124 billion hryvnias (3.65 billion dollars) under the pessimistic scenario and 275 billion hryvnias (5.9 billion dollars) on the optimistic. Based on analysis of variance, it is determined that the relationship between the impact of Internet penetration on the volume of e-commerce is, but it is not very strong; that is, the development of e-commerce is influenced by other market factors.