РОЗРОБКА БАЗИ ДАНИХ ДЛЯ ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ СОНЯЧНОЇ ГЕНЕРАЦІЇ В ПРОГРАМНО-ТЕХНІЧНОМУ КОМПЛЕКСІ УПРАВЛІННЯ ЕЛЕКТРОСПОЖИВАННЯМ ЛОКАЛЬНОГО ОБ’ЄКТА

Abstract

An informational database of clear days for forecasting of electricity generation in software and hardware complex of energy consumption management of a local facility in real operating conditions based on use of statistical meteorological data from open sources is developed. The comparison of clear days solar radiation data for photoelectric systems located at points with different geographical coordinates on the territory of Ukraine is carried out. The high consistency of clear days solar radiation data and total electricity generation data of photoelectric systems for selected geographical coordinates is justified. It is shown that the analysis of solar radiation data that receipt in clear days during the period of meteorological observations can be carried out for geographical coordinates of Kiev. The analysis of clear days solar radiation data during the period of meteorological observations is carried out and the time step of data sampling is determined. It is shown that calendar month can be considered the data sampling period by clear days in the database. The exception is the winter period, when calendar month can be divided into two halves, for each of which its own time level of solar radiation receipt is determined. A generalized structure of predicting system of solar radiation receipt in real conditions for software and hardware complex of energy consumption management of local facility is developed. The cloudless sky model was chosen as the basic model for predicting of solar radiation. The input and output data of forecasting system are determined. It is established that to increase the accuracy of forecast, the clear days database should be supplemented by a stochastic model that takes into account real cloudiness. It is shown that further research direction is accounting of cloudiness influence for hourly forecast of solar radiation on surface of photoelectric module with a certain spatial orientation, and for calculations of energy generated by the photoelectric system is temperature of solar panels