ДИНАМИКА ЛАНДШАФТОВ И КЛИМАТА В ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ И ВОСТОЧНОЙ ЕВРОПЕ В ГОЛОЦЕНЕ – ПРОГНОЗНЫЕ ОЦЕНКИ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ПРИРОДНОЙ СРЕДЫ

Abstract

The paper presents a review of the Holocene landscape and climate reconstructions for the forest zone of Central and Eastern Europe revealed from various proxies and comparison of the data obtained with the main stages of relief development and sedimentation during the Holocene. Projections of expected climate change are discussed according to IPCC scenarios (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5; Representative Concentration Pathways for possible range of radiative forcing). Analysis of the data showed that in the Early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka BP), a rapid climate warming led to crucial transformation when all of landscape components were transformed, and relief-forming processes underwent significant changes. In the Middle Holocene, the time interval of 8.2–5.7 ka BP was characterized by the maximum heat supply in comparison with the whole Holocene and the weakening of the temperature gradient in the direction from west to east. At this time, a continuous zone of broad-leaved forests occupied the mid-latitude regions of Europe. Starting from 5.7 ka BP, the climatic cooling led to the sectoral differentiation of vegetation cover. In the western regions, the expansion of beech and hornbeam began, in the east, and the role of spruce in forest communities increased. Climate reconstructions for the Late Holocene (4.2 ka BP – present) have shown that against the background of the general climate trend towards a decrease in heat supply, periods of warming and cooling are distinguished. During the late Holocene the modern landscape cover was formed, the influence of the anthropogenic factor increased. According to paleobotanical, isotope-geochemical and paleohydrological studies in various regions of Central and Eastern Europe, the climate was drier than at present during periods of warming, mainly due to changes in the precipitation/evaporation balance, and climate cooling was accompanied by an increase in moisture. Bearing in mind the Holocene climate reconstructions as a possible scenario of climate changes during the current century, one can expect that an increase in temperatures, especially in the summer period, will cause the increase in the frequency of droughts and natural disasters, associated with irregular rainfall.