장기전세주택 수선유지비용의 실증분석 및 예측

Abstract

This study analyzes and predicts maintenance expenses which can be incurred for the long-term by investigating management scale of long-term deposit-only rental (so-called Jeonsei) housing to provide reasonable and effective maintenance services for the residents who live in long-term deposit-only rental housing. The study also analyzes financial ripple effect of maintenance expenses on business entities in economic terms. Prediction model for maintenance cost utilized a model of a preceding study which calculated 'standard cost of area divided by number of household by age of apartment' through case analysis of public rental housing and, as the result of prediction, incurred maintenance cost were over 2.4 billion won in 2015, 4.5 billion won in 2018, 6.5 billion won in 2020 and 20 billion won in 2026. In addition, the ratio of maintenance expenses of long-term deposit-only rental housing against business cost of rental housing turned out to be 0.32% in 2013, 1.99% in 2020 and 6.26% in 2026, showing increasing financial burden for business entities. Based on the result of analysis, for sustainable maintenance of long-term deposit-only rental housing, this study suggests followings; first, serious considerations should be made to sell long-term deposit-only rental housing over the scale of National Housing to residents who desire to purchase them. Second, maintenance service should be restructured to orient toward residents. Third, precaution and management activities on maintenance should be fortified.