Внешняя торговля России в новых условиях

Abstract

The article discusses the key challenges for the development of Russia's foreign trade in the modern conditions, analyzes the influence of the most important external factors on the dynamics of domestic exports and imports. Currently, the global merchandise trade is influenced by a complex of negative trends, the most important of which are increased protectionism and the spread of the epidemic of the new coronavirus. The projected slowdown in the global economy and in world trade poses a serious threat to the development of Russia's foreign trade, which is critically dependent on the influence of external factors, primarily the situation on energy markets. The paper presents the results of a quantitative assessment of the impact of change in the pricing environment on the value indicators of export, import and foreign trade balance of Russia in 2014-2018. The calculated total decrease in export value associated with a change in prices in 2014-2018 amounted to more than 40% of the actual value of exports for this period. Relatively high growth rates of physical volumes of export could not compensate for the losses from the deterioration of the terms of trade, given their scale. Based on the analysis, the article formulates proposals for improving Russia's foreign trade policy.