서울 아파트 가격은 거품인가?*

Abstract

This study analyzed whether the rise in apartment prices in Seoul could be interpreted as a housing bubble since 2017. In terms of the fact that the housing price bubble was difficult to be explained by observable changes in the market environment, this study examined the explanatory power of the endogenous relationship between the change in housing prices and economic variables in the pertinent period. To do so, this study set a model which interpreted how far the rate of change in actual housing prices deviated from the explainable change in basic market environments and applied the model to housing bubbles right before the U.S. subprime crisis (the early and mid 2000’s) and to apartment markets in Seoul after 2017. According to the result, the increase of housing prices in the U.S. markets in the mid 2000’s significantly exceeded the rise anticipated by the change in markets, while the change in apartment prices in Seoul was not considerably different from the conditions that were explained by the change in market circumstances. This suggested that the rise in housing prices in Seoul was caused not by bubbles from excessive expectations or self-realizing predictions but by factors affecting changes in the fundamental values for housing, such as government interventions or monetary policies.