Моделювання впливу прямого іноземного інвестування на економічний розвиток країн

Abstract

The article examines the impact of foreign direct investment (net inflows, net outflows) on the economic development of countries with an emphasis on modeling this impact through the gross domestic product (GDP) indicator. The aim of the study is to develop econometric models that allow to quantify the contribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) to the economic development of countries, in particular Ukraine, the countries of the European Union and the world. To achieve the aim of the study, the methodology of correlation and regression analysis was used, which made it possible to identify the relationship between FDI and the economic development of countries, to assess the significance and efficiency of foreign investment. Paired linear regression equations have been built, the significance and quality of the parameters of econometric models have been checked, in particular, the values of the correlation and determination coefficients have been calculated, and the relationship between the resulting features and dependent variables has been assessed. With the help of the Student’s t-test, conclusions are made to confirm the statistical significance of the model regression coefficients, and through the F-test, the statistical reliability of the regression equations is verified. An analysis of the impact of FDI on the GDP of Ukraine, the EU and the world revealed significant differences in the relationship between these economic variables, which can be explained by different economic and structural features. The greater impact of FDI on Ukraine’s GDP compared to the EU and the world is due to the economic structure, the level of investment attractiveness, the need for external capital and vulnerability to external shocks. It is found that a significant part of Ukraine’s GDP depends on foreign investment, which stimulates economic growth by creating new enterprises, jobs and increasing productivity. The outflow of FDI from Ukraine has a direct impact on the economic stability and investment attractiveness of the country. The article emphasizes the need for a systematic approach to modeling the impact of FDI on GDP, which will contribute to more effective economic development and stability of countries. The results of the simulation can be useful for governments, enterprises and investors in the formation of strategies for attracting and managing foreign investment.