择业能力、风险态度与个人收入分布特征—从倒T、葫芦走向橄榄

Abstract

本文通过对风险态度、择业能力等核心概念的辨析和界定，通过Logistic型个人收入函数的设定，在主流经济学分析框架下将历史上三种经典的收入分布理论进行了有机的综合，进而从理论上比较全面地阐释了收入分布的形成机制。经过随机模拟和案例分析，发现个人择业能力变异系数对收入分布特征所产生了决定性影响。根据模拟过程，基本可以预测，固然我国现阶段收入分布更多的呈现出“倒T型”分布特征，但随着“机会均等”时代的更加成熟，收入分布将经由“葫芦型”特征而最终走向“橄榄型”特征。 Based on the key definitions such as risk manner and occupational choice power, this article sets a Logistic income distribution function to integrate three classical theories about income distribution, and thus gives a more comprehensive framework to interpret the decision mechanism of income distribution. After stochastic simulation and case study, we found that variation coefficient of personal career capabilities had a decisive influence on features of income distribution. According to the simulation process which has forecast meaning, even though there is a “inverted T-shaped” distribution in China nowadays, if the “equal opportunity age” coming soon, we still realize the “olive-shaped” income distribution which is the transformation result of “gourd- shaped” distribution.