실물옵션을 이용한 SNG 사업투자의 경제성 평가 연구

Abstract

Abstract >> This study attempts to suggest an economic analysis model for SNG projects, which can reflect thefuture uncertainty objectively and applies the real option valuation incorporating the flexible investment decision.Based on this analysis model, net present value and internal rate of return were estimated by using preliminaryfeasibility study report of SNG project. And economic evaluation of SNG project was performed with real optionvaluation using binomial option model. Through this, the difference of analysis results between the real optionvaluation model and the discounted cash flow model were compared and the usefulness of the real option valuationmodel was confirmed. From the actual proof analysis, it is confirmed that the real option valuation model showedhigher SNG project value than the discounted cash flow model did. It was confirmed that by applying the realoption valuation model, economic analysis can be performed on not only the current straightforward SNG project,but also various future portfolios having options such as expansion, modification, or decommission.