Влияние пандемии COVID-19 на экономику Таиланда

Abstract

The author analyzes the situation in the Thai economy in 2020–2021 after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic basing on the experience of working in this country as a Russian diplomat. Thailand was hit harder by the pandemic than the neighboring countries due to a larger share of tourism sector in the GDP, problems with the supply and local production of vaccines at an initial stage as well as the sharp decline in foreign trade. After a rocky start the Thai authorities managed to launch mass vaccination campaign and continue measures to support business and vulnerable groups of population. A reviving demand in developed countries helped to increase exports. However, the Thai economy’s recovery is going to be long and uneven. Firstly, global tourism sector is unlikely to return back to previous level soon and would depend on the COVID-19 situation. The possibility of further stepping up international trade will be limited because of global supply chain disruptions. Moreover, it will be difficult to support the GDP growth through the private and public consumption – the household and government debt during last 2 years have considerably increased. This could have negative impact on economic growth in 2022 and in the long-term. Hence, this year the Thai authorities would have to conduct prudent policy while trying to support households’ income and confine growing unemployment, because fiscal space for new borrowing is running out. Another priority is keeping epidemic situation in the Kingdom in order by continuing vaccination of its population.