Գնաճի հաղթահարումը՝ 2022 թվականի գլխավոր մարտահրավեր. ի՞նչ սպասել 2023 թվականին / Overcoming Inflation is the Most Important Challenge in 2022: What to Expect in 2023?

Abstract

The most important economic problem in 2022 was the acceleration of inflation. High inflation, which began after overcoming the pandemic, as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, continued to be a constant companion of economic processes. The increase in interest rates by the leading central banks was aimed precisely at overcoming this problem. In the Republic of Armenia, despite the tension in the region, fairly high economic activity was registered, which was mainly due to the influx of foreigners and financial resources caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war. The refinancing rate of the Central Bank of Armenia, unlike other countries, began to rise earlier, which had a significant impact on inflation expectations. However, on the other hand, foreign exchange flows led to the depreciation of the US dollar in Armenia, which, in turn, played a restraining role in inflation. In 2023, recessionary expectations in the leading economies, and a decrease in demand in the world food and energy markets created positive expectations for a decrease in inflation. However, the issue of growth in domestic demand, which is the biggest obstacle to overcoming inflation, remains uncertain for the RA.