长江经济带旅游-经济-生态系统脆弱性时空演变及趋势预测

Abstract

基于2004—2018年的面板数据, 借助脆弱性研究方法、冷热点分析法、空间变差模型和灰色预测模型探索长江经济带旅游-经济-生态系统的时空演变特征及趋势预测。研究表明：(1)2004—2018年长江经济带总体脆弱性指数在波动中上涨, 各省市脆弱性指数洼地集中于东部地区且呈平稳发展态势；峰值集中于西部地区但下降趋势显著；总体可持续发展水平呈现“东部>中部>西部”的空间分布格局, 但西部地区可持续发展水平可能将在未来超越中部地区。(2)长江经济带脆弱性指数集聚性在扩张, 冷热点时空分布变化显著, 冷点区域减少, 热点区域增多, 印证了总体区域的脆弱性数值在不断提升。(3)长江经济带脆弱性指数空间分异特征呈阶段性变化, “东散西集”的分异特征逐渐被打破, 总体指数呈均衡化发展态势。(4)通过预测计算2019—2023年长江经济带各区域脆弱性指数, 发现2019—2023年的脆弱性指数基本形成了对2014—2018年的全包围态势, 长江经济带三系统脆弱性指数较高的发展隐患逐步成为现实问题。;By selecting panel data from 2004 to 2018, this paper explores characteristics of tourism-economy-ecosystem spatio-temporal variations and trend prediction in Yangtze River Economic Belt with Vulnerability Research Method, Hot Spot Analysis, Spatial Variation Model, and Gray Prediction Model. Key research findings include: (1) from 2004 to 2018, the overall Vulnerability Index of the Yangtze River Economic Belt rose with fluctuations. Among all provinces and cities in China, the Vulnerability Index depressions are mainly in the eastern region, where the index is developing steadily; the peak value mainly occurs in the western region, with the index decreasing significantly. The spatial distribution of the overall sustainable development level from high to low is the eastern region, the central region and the western region, but the sustainable development level in the western region is likely to surpass that in the central region in the future. (2) The Vulnerability Index of the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows agglomeration expansion. The spatial and temporal distribution of hot spot analysis has changed significantly. The number of cold spots has decreased, while the number of hot spots has increased, which confirms that the value of vulnerability in the overall region is increasing. (3) The spatial differentiation characteristics of the Vulnerability Index in the Yangtze River Economic Belt have changed in different stages. The differentiation characteristics of dispersion in the east and agglomeration in the west have gradually been altered, and the overall index has presented a balanced development trend. (4) By predicting and calculating the regional Vulnerability Index of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2019 to 2023, it is found that the Vulnerability Index between 2019 and 2023 outperforms the index from 2014 to 2018. The development hidden danger caused by the high Vulnerability Index of the tourism-economy-ecosystem of the Yangtze River Economic Belt gradually became a realistic question which people must face to.