წყალდიდობის პროგნოზირების საკითხისათვის

Abstract

. Global climate change has caused sharp increasing of natural calamities, including floods. In the course of recent period, over the entire world, every year there are occurring tens of cases of disastrous floods and waterflows characterized by damages worth of several millions and human losses. The issue of forecasting waterflows and floods, in general, is discussed in the article. There are given basic differentiating features-characteristics existing between spring floods and rain-caused waterflows. The methodology of forecasting related decision-making based on the Statistical Fuzzy Analysis is developed at Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, which methodology can be used for flood forecasting. The methodology consists of two stages. At the first stage one and the same prognostic event is assessed using three methods, which allow to make independent forecast. At the second stage, according to the mentioned forecast, the final decision is made. The factors suggested for application of this methodology for flood forecasting are directly related to the climatic parameters of the territory and the state of a river bed and lower terrace. The basic goal of the methodology suggested for flood forecasting is timely reporting on an anticipated disaster.