마켓 타이밍과 유상증자

Abstract

Purpose - In this study, we propose an empirical model for predicting seasoned equity offering (SEO here after) using machine learning methods. Design/methodology/approach - The models utilize the random forest method based on decision trees that considers non-linear relationships, as well as the gradient boosting tree model. SEOs incur significant direct and indirect costs. Therefore, CEOs’ decisions of seasoned equity issuances are made only when the benefits outweigh the costs, which leads to a non-linear relationship between SEOs and a determinant of them. Particularly, a variable related to market timing effectively exhibit such non-linear relations. Findings - To account for these non-linear relationships, we hypothesize that decision tree-based random forest and gradient boosting tree models are more suitable than the linear methodologies due to the non-linear relations. The results of this study support this hypothesis. Research implications or Originality - We expect that our findings can provide meaningful information to investors and policy makers by classifying companies to undergo SEOs.