地域老人介護需要, 市民所得, 公的年金におけるマイクロシミュレーション分析

Abstract

In order to guess the old-man care demand of Kurume-shi, Fukuoka, the Microsimulation was used, the life cycle model of an individual and a household was taken up, and old-man care demand, elderly care insurance, and a public pension policy were considered.A Microsimulation is a simulation which made the analysis unit each action subjects, such as an individual, a household, etc. which is the minimum unit, and the national census first total data (an individual and household) is stored into a database, and is dynamically changed in accordance with an individual life cycle annually. About the event (birth, entering school, employment, marriage, a child's birth, change of occupation and retirement, a pension life, death) in an individual life cycle, a random number is generated and a kind of Monte Carlo simulation is performed. If it does so, by the each people in a model piling up age, and people being born newly, getting married, or it being divorced, changing one's employment, retiring, dying, or carrying out, the attribute of the individual and household of a model changes, and can guess change of household structure, and individual information. The purpose which guesses old-man care demand is the center of commerce of Kurume-shi, and in order that it may develop the business for an old man, it is calculating a future anticipation value. However, if it is not what was not temporary and considered ten-year after and 20-year after, as a result of increasing the number of home helpers too much, there is also a case which has lapsed into personal bankruptcy in a private sector nursing care service provider.Through Microsimulation analysis, an individual and a household model are built, and an imitation experiment is conducted and analyzed from 1995 to 2015.Moreover, individual annual earnings were calculated every year. It is asking for all citizens' distribution citizen income, and 65 or more years-old elderly people's pension benefit.The Microsimulation program was actually built and performed. Although elderly care insurance started in 2001 and many private sector contractors have intervened, there is a case which profit does not suit.A Microsimulation is the very leading tool which can achieve results clearly, and comparative statistics can also perform it easily by changing DB reference table parameter.JEL classification : C80, C88, R20, R22, R50