碳排放与市场失灵(一)——碳排放负外部效应及其治理路径

This paper considers a carbon emission cap and trade market, where the carbon emission cap for each entity (either government or firm) is allocated first and then the carbon trading price is decided interdependently in the carbon trading market among the non-cooperative entities which make their production decision. We assume that there are n entities emitting carbon during the production process. After allocating the carbon (emission) cap for each participating entity in the carbon cap and trade market, each participant makes a production decision using the Newsvendor model given carbon trading price determined in the carbon trading market and trades some amount of its carbon emission, if its carbon emission is below or above its own carbon cap. Here, the carbon trading price depends on how carbon caps over the entities are allocated, since the carbon trading price is determined through the carbon (emission) trading market, which considers total amount of carbon emission being equal to total carbon caps over entities and some fraction of total carbon emission should be from each entity participating in the carbon cap and trade market. Thus, we can see the interdependency among the production decision, carbon cap and carbon trading price. We model this as a non-cooperative Stackelberg game in which carbon cap for each entity is allocated in the first stage and each entity’s production quantity is decided in the second stage considering the carbon trading price determined in the carbon trading market. First, we show the monotonic property of the carbon trading price and each entity’s production over the carbon cap allocation. In addition, we show that there exists an optimality condition for the carbon cap allocation. Using this optimality condition, we provide various results for carbon cap and trade market.

Purpose The construction industry, contributing approximately 39% of global carbon emissions, faces challenges to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Traditional methods for estimating and managing carbon emissions suffer from inaccuracies, low transparency and data integrity issues, highlighting the need for trustworthy and efficient solutions. This paper aims to demonstrate how blockchains can enhance the accuracy of tracking carbon emissions and streamlining carbon trading, providing a robust system to manage and reduce carbon emissions effectively. Design/methodology/approach A case study-based approach is adopted to develop a blockchain-based system (EcoConstruct) to track carbon emissions and circularity of construction materials and facilitate carbon trading in the industry. The implementation uses smart contract technology and the Beneficial Assets Ownership protocol in the Tezos blockchain to validate carbon emission tracking, carbon trading and circularity criteria. The system was evaluated and validated through expert feedback, ensuring its practical applicability and effectiveness. Findings EcoConstruct demonstrates advancements in transparency, data integrity and efficiency in carbon estimation and trading. The system’s immutable ledger securely stores carbon emissions and their compensations using non-fungible tokens called carbon rewards. This system facilitates transparent and accountable carbon trading among stakeholders (clients, contractors and material suppliers). The findings highlight the potential of blockchains to overcome current challenges in carbon emissions management and trading in the construction industry. Originality/value EcoConstruct provides a novel blockchain-based solution for managing carbon emissions and promoting sustainability in construction, moving beyond conceptualisation by leveraging blockchain’s decentralisation, immutability, transparency and security to enhance carbon estimation accuracy and streamline carbon trading.

Carbon markets devolve governance to external institutions and displace power from sovereign states. Major producers in these markets, notably China, have expressed concern about the adverse implications for national interests and sovereignty associated with selling off the rights to emit carbon emissions abroad. This article suggests that such concern has shaped the discursive context in which emission trading schemes have gained popularity in the country. Our discourse analysis shows that notions of market power are made manifest as a powerful storyline. In the Chinese language, “power,” “sovereignty,” and “rights” all use the same character. The storyline captures all these expressions and allows for a positive view about active engagement in carbon trading as a way to protect development rights and redeem carbon sovereignty. Thus, the contested policy of emissions trading becomes embedded in the more appealing narrative of national development and made politically attractive, despite unfavorable realities against it.

The Problem of Social Cost

Carbon pricing is about the explicit pricing of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, of which carbon dioxide is the most important. GHG emissions, which are normally measured in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent units, are responsible for global warming and hence the greatest environmental externality of our age. Carbon pricing is a mechanism for making society account for the external damage caused by carbon emissions in economic decision making. There are two main ways of pricing carbon dioxide emissions, either via a carbon tax or via the introduction of an emissions trading scheme whereby those emitting carbon into the atmosphere are required to surrender permits which reflect the quantity of emissions they are responsible for. These emission permits are tradeable and hence command a price and, in some respects, operate in a similar way to a carbon tax. Thus, we will discuss both carbon pricing and emissions trading, as the literature on both is closely related. Emissions trading exists for certain other pollutants (such as sulphur dioxide) and we will discuss some of the literature related to this. However, most of the literature on emissions trading relates to carbon dioxide emissions, as these are by far the most valuable traded emissions globally. The literature on carbon pricing and emissions trading is wide ranging and constantly being updated with new analyses. Much of the literature is written by economists who are seeking to apply market-based approaches to the solution of environmental problems. The article starts by looking at the general context in which carbon pricing and emissions trading sits before discussing introductory texts which relate to the subject and going on to introduce the relevant classic literature in environmental economics. It then proceeds to more applied literature, beginning with discussions of early examples of emissions trading and carbon taxation, before continuing to studies of the impact of carbon pricing and emissions trading and those which explain the nature of the schemes we observe. The article continues with literature which looks at the Europe Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for GHGs and other important carbon pricing schemes. It then moves on to the literature on the prospects for a global carbon price, on interactions with other climate policies, on distributional concerns about the imposition of a price on carbon. Finally, it concludes with an introduction to relevant official publications and sources of data on carbon emissions and carbon prices.

On the basis of the latest input–output data, this paper estimates the amount of embodied carbon emissions in inter-regional trade by constructing a multiregional input–output model to evaluate how environmental regulation stringency influences its spatial transfer. We found that environmental regulation stringency had significant positive correlation with transferring out embodied carbon emissions in trade at the national level, and a significant negative correlation with transferring in embodied carbon emissions in trade. In East and Central China, effective environmental regulation observably improves the issue of carbon emissions caused by trade, while in the western region, environmental regulation stringency had significant positive correlation with transferring in and out embodied carbon emissions in inter-regional trade. For that reason, we further use the geographically weighted regression model (GWR) to assess the spatial evolution characteristics of the intensity of environmental regulation on the transfer of embodied carbon emissions in trade; thereby, the above results are verified and show that environmental regulation has failed to play its due role.

Carbon trading volume and price forecasting in China using multiple machine learning models

To control growing environmental problems, the pollution rights trading (PRT) center was established in Jiaxing in 2007, and China officially joined the carbon emission reduction market (NCET) in 2011. Since power enterprises are the main participants in the NCET market and PRT market, the integrated effect of the NCET market and PRT market on power enterprise profit and the regional environment is one of the major issues that needs to be taken into consideration. Based on system dynamics (SD) theory, we propose an NCET-PRT simulation model for power enterprises in Chongqing. Through analyzing parameters of carbon trading price, free ratio, and emission trading prices, 12 different simulation scenarios are configured for sensitivity analysis. Based on the simulation results, the following observations can be obtained: (1) NCET and PRT can effectively promote the performance of enterprises’ carbon emissions reduction and regional pollutant emission reduction but will have a minor negative impact on the industrial economy at the same time; (2) The trading mechanism is interactive; if the carbon emissions trading (NCET) mechanism is implemented separately, the emission of pollutants will be reduced significantly. However, the implementation of pollution rights trading (PRT) alone cannot significantly reduce CO2 emissions; (3) At an appropriate level, NCET and PRT can be enhanced to achieve a maximum emissions reduction effect at a minimum economic cost.

The carbon market is a key tool for China to meet its emission reduction targets, but it is still in the early stages of development. More evidence is needed to assess its effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions. This paper establishes an evolutionary game model to analyze the interaction between the government and enterprises and applies the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) algorithm to identify carbon emission reduction effects of the carbon market based on carbon emission data from 2000 to 2019. The theoretical model reveals that the construction of China’s carbon market needs to go through three stages: stages of lack of enthusiasm from both the government and enterprises, government dominance, and market dominance. The empirical results show that the carbon market has a significant carbon emission reduction effect, which affects regional carbon emissions through technological innovation, fiscal, and digitalization effects. Further analysis indicates that the maturity of the carbon market and the readjustment of industrial structure contribute to carbon emission reduction effects. Although carbon emission reduction effects are not achieved by reducing labor employment, a resource curse effect may still emerge. This study deepens the understanding of China’s carbon market construction and offers valuable insights for policy practices aimed at high-quality development.

Impacts and mechanisms of heterogeneous environmental regulations on carbon emissions: An empirical research based on DID method

Under carbon cap and trade mechanism, collecting ratio and carbon cap seriously affect the decision of a manufacturer in a closed-loop supply chain. This paper constructs pricing models for manufacturing and remanufacturing products in the presence of carbon cap and trade mechanism, aiming to reveal the impact of the collecting ratio for the carbon emission. A manufacturer and a carbon-trade supplier are involved in a Stackelberg pricing game. First, a decision model without carbon trade is formulated. Judging conditions are shown for determining whether carbon cap and collection ratio are effective factors. The two-sided impact of the collection ratio over the carbon emission is demonstrated. In practice, the manufacturer sometimes produces and sells a large proportion of new products by pricing strategies when facing a low collection ratio. Second, a Stackelberg game is played between the manufacturer and the carbon-trade supplier. We demonstrate that the decision model without carbon trade and the game model with carbon trade compose a complete decision process for the manufacturer. Finally, numerical illustrations are designed to examine the sensitivity of the carbon emission with respect to the collection ratio and determine the decision area when both the collection ratio and the carbon cap change.

Potential gains from carbon emissions trading in China: A DEA based estimation on abatement cost savings

Recently, the environmental and resource crisis caused by excessive energy consumption has aroused great concern worldwide. China is a major country of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and has attempted to build a carbon emission trading market to reduce carbon emissions. This practice helps to promote the carbon trading projects for both regional carbon emission reduction and sustainable development in the pilot areas, as well as having important theoretical and practical significance for the further improvement of carbon emission trading policies. In this study, we first used the difference-in-difference (DID) model to evaluate the impact of carbon emission trading on the carbon emission intensity of construction land (CEICL). The results showed that the carbon emission trading policy can significantly reduce CEICL in the pilot areas. Furthermore, we adopted the quantile regression model to explore the mechanism and acting path of carbon emission trading on CEICL. The results show that the increase in carbon trading volume (CTV) can effectively reduce the CEICL. However, a high carbon trading price (CTP) tends to reduce the suppressing effect of carbon emission trading on CEICL. Additionally, carbon emission trading also affects CEICL through the indirect acting paths of industrial structure and energy intensity. Finally, we propose to promote regional low-carbon development from the perspective of developing a carbon emission trading market nationwide, rationalizing the carbon quota and trading price mechanism, optimizing the regional industrial structure, and improving the energy consumption structure.

In recent years, with the intensification of global warming and the greenhouse effect, the global consensus has focused on efficient, clean, low-carbon, and green development as a means of achieving new economic growth. China, as a major carbon emitter, has been at the forefront of efforts to reduce carbon emissions. The establishment of the carbon emissions trading market, commonly known as the “carbon market”, provides an economic solution for reducing carbon emissions in both the carbon and energy markets. As China’s carbon market continues to grow rapidly, fluctuations in the energy or carbon markets caused by information shocks can easily spread between the two markets, leading to increased interconnectedness. Moreover, the spillover effect of the volatility between China’s carbon market and energy market is not constant, and the intensity and direction of this effect vary depending on different market volatility levels and periods. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct a comprehensive study on the characteristics of the volatility spillover effect between China’s carbon market and energy market and to fully understand the mechanism of energy regulation on carbon prices. This research will have significant practical implications for promoting the establishment of a well-functioning internal price transmission mechanism between China’s carbon market and energy market. This study took the risk spillover between the carbon market and energy market as the research object and systematically combed through its pricing mechanism and spillover impact. Through constructing the DY overflow index model based on a VAR model and generalized variance decomposition method, this study explored the linkage between China’s carbon and energy markets, i.e., the linkage of price fluctuations between China’s energy and carbon markets, as well as the time-varying nature of inter-market spillovers, and provides suggestions on the risk control of price fluctuations between the carbon and energy markets.

The stability and effectiveness of international climate agreements : the role of carbon trade, bargaining power and enforcement