地震災害を考える 予測と対策 危機管理の視点に立った地震被害予測の重要性

Abstract

A large-scale earthquake causes various types of destruction to our society.The loss of the life, physical damage and the so-called direct damage such as the loss of the social infrastructure or the collapse/loss of the buildings and facilities can be expected at first.Next, is the indirect economic destruction, for instance, due to the halting of enterprise activities and transportation. Also, you can imagine the economic damage caused by the interruption of computer networks or information network services.It is concievable that damage suffered by business partners may result in severe damage to you.Economic damage due to confusion, collapse of the social, economic system, and the financial system, should be also recognized as so-called indirect damage and be included with damages indicated above.It is expected that such indirect damage will bring a far serious influence on the economy in comparison to direct damage, especially for certain types of highly developed economic/financial cities like Tokyo. A huge earthquake has yet to hit a city, that functions internationally as an economic and financial capital like Tokyo.For this reason, the research on seismic damage prediction was insufficient from such a point of view. We should take efficient measures to reduce seismic damage to a level that our society can accept, and accomplish this by using our precious social resources.It is very important to understand the severity damage an earthquake can bring to our society in order to accomplish the above tasks, and it is desirable to do it first.This paper attempts to clarify the characteristics of indirect seismic destruction, and attempts to suggest a realistic prediction process putting emphasis on the importance of the prediction of indirect seismic damage. The items that should be clarfied in such an indirect damage prediction and the steps to accomplish these items are as the follows.1. Preparation of social damage scenarios based on the occurrence of a presumed earthquake2. Qualitative/quantitative analysis of the seismic damage based on such scenarios3. Consideration of socially acceptable limits of seismic damage, and preparation for plans to control the seismic damage to keep it within an allowable range4. Preparation of countermeasures for the mitigation of seismic damage and consideration of the responsibility for executing the countermeasures