Факторы глобального кризиса

Abstract

The relevance of the topic of the article is due to the formation of negative trends in the global economy, strengthening the prerequisites and factors of the upcoming global crises. The need to clarify these factors is due to the rapid changes in geo-economic conditions and the geopolitical alignment of forces in the world. The purpose of the article is to identify the factors of the global crisis and their ranking. Objectives. To do this, the following tasks are being solved: research of existing approaches to identifying the prerequisites for the escalation of crisis phenomena and their verification; substantiation of the integral factor of the global crisis and the forms of its manifestation in certain areas; development of proposals to management bodies for assessing and predicting the prerequisites of crises on a systematic basis, using dynamic modeling and taking into account the hierarchy of individual factors. Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is a systematic and factor analysis, as well as the concept of development and change of world economic patterns in global economic development. Results. The main result of the study is the substantiation of the integral factor of the global crisis and the structuring of its individual manifestations in the civilizational, resource, financial, information, environmental and other spheres. Conclusions. It is shown that all the factors considered are systemic in nature, stem from fundamental socio-economic contradictions and cannot be eliminated without resolving these contradictions. It is emphasized that the process of identifying and assessing global risks is not free from subjectivity and conflict of interests of individual experts and international organizations. This makes it necessary to verify and rethink them in order to eliminate the subjectivity of international (mainly Western) experts and taking into account the national interests and goals of the Russian Federation.