Общехозяйственная конъюнктура Еврозоны

Abstract

The article deals with the main trends in the dynamics of the Eurozone’s general business situation (GBS) since its formation. The first (2008–2009) and the second (2012–2013) waves of the recession are compared. Average growth rates of key business cycle indicators are calculated. The periodization of the Eurozone business cycles as well as the identification of turning points made by the Centre for Economic Policy Research is critically assessed. The steady character of economic revival in 2014 is challenged. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a principal factor of GBS is assessed. GFCF rate as well as returns on GFCF are calculated and monitored. The classification of the Eurozone countries as per GDP volume and GDP per capita is provided. The mechanism of GBS formation is analyzed; the roles of the core countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain) are highlighted. Also, the interaction of the block as a whole and its individual member countries is revealed. Deviations of individual countries dynamics from that of the Eurozone are identified and possible explanations for such phenomena are proposed. Then, the differences in GBS dynamics in the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods are analyzed in details. The correlation between the Eurozone and US business cycle is tracked. The desynchronization of the Eurozone members’ dynamics in 2008-2014 is highlighted. The connection between the level of economic development and the divergence in countries and Eurozone GBS dynamics is established. Business cycle phases and changes in key indicators among the Eurozone members are compared. The fragility of the future Eurozone GBS is forecasted. The author points at a dubious character of the allegations about significant improvement of GBS in the Eurozone and expects the continuation of its competitiveness’ crisis.