국민연금의 수급부담구조분석과 지속가능성

Abstract

Abstract The National Pension of Korea is a public social security system designed to alleviate social risks andpoverty that has had a major impact on the quality of life for the aging population. However, a rapidlyaging population and low fertility threaten the sustainability of national pension in Korea. The NationalPension Research Institute publishes a nancial projection every ve years; consequently, the governmenthas lowered the entitlements for the sustainability of national pension based on the projection results. Thecurrent reform of the pension system that arbitrarily reduces the entitlements might detract from the incomesecurity role of the national pension for pensioners without accounting for the highest elderly poverty ratein the OECD countries.We rst discuss methods for the nancial projection of the national pension in terms of population, sub-scribers, and pensioner projections in order to estimate the pension reserve fund and the nancial depletionyear. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis for population variables, institutional variables, and economicvariables based on pension reserves and the nancial depletion year. We evaluate intergenerational fairnessbetween the income hierarchy by conducting a money’s worth analysis. Finally, we investigate the possi-bility of the sustainability of national pension by adjusting pension contributions and entitlements (incomereplacement rate). A new dependency ratio shows that a simple reform of the national pension does notsecure the sustainability of the national pension without adapting a pay-as-you-go system.Keywords: nancial projection of the national pension, sustainability, bene t/cost ratio, lifetime transfer,modi ed dependency ratio