Abstract
Scope of research: the triad of Russia’s sustainable development up to 2035 (economic, social and environmental issues). The given period is expected to be marked by significant instability, both in relations between different nations and between different groups inside nations, such as proponents and opponents of modernization, or groups promoting dissimilar ideas and forms of modernization. In addition, – and this is a point on which almost all open-access analytical papers and forecasts concur, – in this period, the world will face various challenges including: depletion of natural resources (primarily hydrocarbons); critical level of anthropogenic stress in a number of countries; overpopulation and increased consumption in developing countries; food security risks; continued desertification and fresh water shortages; higher risks of man-made disasters as well as new infections and epidemics. This paper proposes two scenarios for Russia’s environmental situation development up to 2035. According to the first scenario, titled “Black Hole”, Russian authorities will not pay sufficient attention to sustainable development and, for that matter, efficient use of natural resources and environmental security, even though the country’s energy sources will start to wane. According to the second scenario, titled “Era of Real Changes”, issues of socioeconomic development, energy security and environmental pollution will attract more and more attention at all government levels. All types of environmental pollution will become taxable, which will urge polluters to embrace best available techniques/technologies (BAT). In conclusion, the author provides an analysis of this research outcomes and emphasizes the key role of timely BAT incorporation to keep industries alive and enable sustainable development of the country. The importance of a decentralized federal system of governance is also highlighted, whereby environmental issues can and must be addressed, in the first place, at the regional level. Finally, the author has devised the first ever principles for a new sustainable development model – “Honest development”.
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