시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 Covid-19 물류대란에서의 채찍현상에 관한 연구

Abstract

Purpose Triggered by the measures taken to manage Covid-19, the increase in supply uncertainty and demand distortion in the market caused information asymmetry that led to the bullwhip effect of supply chain. We study the factors that affect the bullwhip effect caused by Covid-19 as well as its aftermaths. Methods We designed a stock flow diagram to analyze the bullwhip effect based on a supply chain simulation using system dynamics and also perform a causal analysis on variables affecting the supply. Results The results show that the increase in safty inventory, reduction of ship delays, and information sharing can reduce the bullwhip effect while dampening the amplification of orders in the global supply chain consisting of a retailer, a RDC (Regional Distribution Center) and a manufacturer. Conclusion A research model that analyzes the bullwhip effect of the covid-19 logistic crisis using system dynamics is proposed. The model is expected to serve as a useful tool to analyze and manage potentially uncertain global supply chain risk scenarios caused by disruptive events such as Covid-19.