СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ COVID-19 И РОССИЙСКО-УКРАИНСКОГО КОНФЛИКТА ДЛЯ АФРИКАНСКОГО КОНТИНЕНТА

Abstract

The article examines the impact of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the African economy. In 2021, the real gross domestic product (GDP) in Africa grew strongly, increasing by 6.9 percent. The author notes that this increase was due to the recovery of global demand, higher oil prices, and the easing of restrictions on COVID-19 in most countries. However, in 2022, with the beginning of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict, the prospects for economic growth in Africa have become extremely uncertain, and the risks are leaning downward. The author compares growth rates in different countries and regions of Africa, investigating their dynamics. The article outlines the key determinant that negatively affects the economic performance of the African continent. These include increased debt vulnerability, tough global financial conditions as inflationary pressures increase, shortage of supply of products of the machine-building area, the impact of the Russian– Ukrainian conflict and related sanctions on Russia, and low vaccination rates against COVID-19. The author of the article offers conclusions and recommendations for improving recovery and creating a sustainable economy in Africa, such as: assisting the domestic pharmaceutical industry in the production of vaccines at the local level and eliminating bottlenecks in the delivery of vaccines; finding innovative ways to mobilize domestic resources to expand the fiscal space for investment in sectors that reduce poverty; increase the investments into critical health systems; coordinate monetary and fiscal policy to adjust inflationary pressures; reducing dependence on any the sole supplier of food and an increase in local grain production in Africa to reduce the risks of global supply.