Экстремальный дождевой паводок 2014 года в бассейне Верхней Оби: причины, прогноз и натурные наблюдения

Abstract

Forecasting of inundations caused by spring high-water periods and rainfall floods is of a great social/economic importance. Methods of short-term forecasting are of special signifi cance for solution of operative tasks connected with protection of population and material values, as well as operation of water-work facilities. Big floods at the rivers of our country are regular over the recent years: disastrous flood in Krymsk in 2012 becase of extreme rainfall flood in the Agadum River basin; flooding of vast territories in the Far East due to the rainfall flood in the Amur River basin in 2013. In 2014 heavy rainfall in the Altay foothills caused a major inundation at the Upper Ob basin rivers in Republic of Altay and Altay Kray. The article discusses the reasons of the extreme rainfall flood formation at Altay in 2014. Calculations of the rainfall flood wave propagation at the range from Fominskoye to the Novosibirsk hydro power station dam have been made on the basis of the computer model of flows in the Upper Ob beds system and operative data concerning levels at hydro observation stations. Measurements of water discharge rate at Barnaul have been made during the flood. Outcomes of the predictive computations of levels and field observations data concerning the maximal water discharge rates are discussed. A good agreement of the predicted and observed values has been obtained in terms of maximal levels at the range of the Barnaul hydro observation station. It has been demonstrated that the obtained computer model for description of the Ob River flows can be used for short-term forecasts of floodplains flooding of the Upper Ob and justification of the discharges regime from the Novosibirsk Reservoir.